Recently I read an article quoting dairy farm sale prices have fallen by 12.1% over the past 12 months. In my opinion, I think expectation of falling land values are over estimated.
I think we are going to see a recovery in dairy prices. The total New Zealand dairy supply is equal to the annual production variance in the US dairy production alone. We are also already seeing production fall in Europe as it is unaffordable for them to produce at these prices. I had a report that showed 25% of European dairy farmers would stop milking cows before the end of the year. We are also seeing New Zealand farmers kill any animal that they don’t see as viable (based on constitution – things like bad udders or lower than acceptable production). Dairy farmers are also taking advantage of high beef prices and reducing stocking numbers. All of this will flow into lower Fonterra volumes – you watch the news in about three months time as analysts work this out.
Interest rates along with how farmers think, will also hold up land prices. There are 70% of dairy farmers with strong balance sheets and money is cheap, so don’t expect all farms to fall in value. This assumption that land values will fall is based on the belief that farmers act in a logical, commercial way – they don’t. History shows that if the neighbouring farm comes up, farmers will do their very best to buy it. We know things are tight for our dairy farming friends and they have worked flat out over calving. You can be sure they often have a long term view of things, and they know this is just a season, and tough times come and go.
There are lots of positives out there but as usual, the press come out six months late and try and tell us how bad the world is.
Avoid the noise and look at the long term. Producing food is a vital industry and New Zealand is great at it.
If you are an investor, you need to be considering how you have exposure to this amazing part of the New Zealand economy.
John Barber
