On reviewing 2013, it has been a stellar year for investors. Global equity markets are up 24% and the NZ market is up 19% year to date. Many say 2014 may be even better still but I have my own concerns. Never take returns from last year as a guide for next year.
Equity markets are no longer cheap and the bond market is close to over priced. In fact, some bond investors will have lost money in the bond market in the past six months. In Australia banking stocks and high quality shares such as health care have done well, but some of the big name mining stocks have had a tough year.
New Zealand is looking to be in a good place economically with the Christchurch rebuild, immigration up and the dairy sector firing on all cylinders, but there are some headwinds:
- 2014 is election year and we could end up with a change of government
- the New Zealand Reserve Bank continues to talk about cranking interest rates which will drive mortgage rates back to around 8%
- we have employers holding off on any investment or increasing employment opportunities.
The world wide economy is still driven by the US economy. At some stage the US must stop printing money and start to rewind their debt level. This can’t help but stop consumption; and when you stop to consider that 55% of the world consumers are Americans, like it or not, we are all reliant on the US economy. Eventually this will flow through to the share markets, and the amazing returns we’ve seen in the past 12 months may not continue.
I think Father Christmas is going to bring us another interesting year with some contrast and diversity. Plan to get some good forward thinking financial planning advice from someone who isn’t answerable to a product supplier or bank. If you want a good Christmas present for your friends and family, send them to talk to us early in 2014 – our first meeting is always complimentary.
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM THE WEALTHDESIGN TEAM!
read on...